Tommy scrambles the senate race

The 2026 election season in Alabama already promised to be exciting. The top three constitutional line offices open due to the incumbents being termed out. The other statewide constitutional office holders might decide to seek a promotion, so it is very possible that come January 2027, it could feature all new office holders on Goat Hill in Montgomery. The action in Alabama politics was going to be at the statewide level, and the federal elections would be anticlimactic. That has changed in a big way. The announcement today by Lt. Governor Will Ainsworth that he will be leaving elected office at the end of term, along with reporting by Jake Sherman and Andrew Desiderio, confirms that Senator Tommy Tuberville will run for governor instead of running for reelection to the Senate. The decision will cause a primary for an open Senate seat and possibly multiple House seats as several members of the House of Representatives have been mentioned as possible candidates to succeed Tuberville in the Senate. If I had to speculate on the top contenders for the job at this time, I would say that Attorney General Steve Marshall, Mayor Tommy Battle, and Speaker Ledbetter are very likely to run. Speaker Ledbetter is close to Tuberville and was one of his earliest prominent backers in 2020. As Speaker of the State House, Ledbetter would have the backing of many members of the State House. Huntsville Tommy Battle could leverage the incredible growth of Huntsville as one of his major selling points. Battle would also likely be the preferred candidate of the business class. Attorney General Steve Marshall would likely be the preferred candidate of the MAGA wing of the Republican Party due to his undying devotion to Donald Trump, including his efforts to overturn the results of the 2020 election. It is also possible that several current or former members of the Alabama congressional delegation seek the Senate seat. The most important factor in The 2026 election season in Alabama already promised to be exciting. The top three constitutional line offices open due to the incumbents being termed out. The other statewide constitutional office holders might decide to seek a promotion, so it is very possible that come January 2027, it could feature all new office holders on Goat Hill in Montgomery. The action in Alabama politics was going to be at the statewide level, and the federal elections would be anticlimactic. That has changed in a big way. The announcement today by Lt. Governor Will Ainsworth that he will be leaving elected office at the end of term, along with reporting by Jake Sherman and Andrew Desiderio, confirms that Senator Tommy Tuberville will run for governor instead of running for reelection to the Senate. The decision will cause a primary for an open Senate seat and possibly multiple House seats as several members of the House of Representatives have been mentioned as possible candidates to succeed Tuberville in the Senate. If I had to speculate on the top contenders for the job at this time, I would say that Attorney General Steve Marshall, Mayor Tommy Battle, and Speaker Ledbetter are very likely to run. Speaker Ledbetter is close to Tuberville and was one of his earliest prominent backers in 2020. As Speaker of the State House, Ledbetter would have the backing of many members of the State House. Huntsville Tommy Battle could leverage the incredible growth of Huntsville as one of his major selling points. Battle would also likely be the preferred candidate of the business class. Attorney General Steve Marshall would likely be the preferred candidate of the MAGA wing of the Republican Party due to his undying devotion to Donald Trump, including his efforts to overturn the results of the 2020 election. It is also possible that several current or former members of the Alabama congressional delegation seek the Senate seat. The most important factor in this election will be the role of Donald Trump. The Alabama Republican Party is going to coalesce around Tuberville as the gubernatorial candidate. If Trump stays out of this and allows the Republican Party to bigger this out for themselves, it's a wide-open race; however, if Trump makes an endorsement early, it's a done deal; whoever he endorses will win the primary, probably without much competition.  I will make an admission in closing. A prominent leader of the Alabama Republican Party told me last summer when discussing the 2026 gubernatorial election that Tuberville was a possible candidate for governor. Very little attention had been paid to this possibility at that point after Trump won reelection, and Tuberville did not get picked for the cabinet; talk of this possibility became louder. However, this humble correspondent always knew, but this was a real possibility. We will discuss the Democratic candidates, and in a later post, I anticipate meeting three of the contenders this weekend at a local party function.